Population Aging in Healthcare – A Minor Issue? Evidence from Switzerland

Carsten Colombier

FiFo / April 2016 / Discussion Paper, FiFo

Abstract
Our study shows that population aging substantially affects
healthcare expenditure (HCE). This conclusion supports the
popular, but recently strongly contested, view that the coming
population aging will threaten the fiscal sustainability of health
systems. We contribute to this debate, first by estimating the
determinants of Swiss healthcare expenditure (HCE) with
outlier-robust dynamic regressions, and second, by projecting
Swiss HCE based on the estimates produced and new population
scenarios. Medical advances and GDP per capita also play
a decisive role. Governments can mitigate HCE growth by
improving the health status of the population and by stimulating
cost-effective and productive medical advances.